The sequence that Trump threatened if no deal was reached before the expiry of his deadline would have cut China off from half of the oil that it imported by sea last year and likely set Afro-Eurasia aflame in resource wars for the indefinite future that would have derailed Chinas superpower rise.
Three unnamed Iranian officials reportedly told theNew York Times(NYT) that China pressed their country to compromise with the US by agreeing to atwo-week ceasefire and resuming talks. When asked about whether China played such a role, Trumprespondedthat, I hear yes. Yes they were. This was followed by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ningrevealingthat China made its own efforts in this regard. Although she didnt directly confirm the report, she didnt outright deny it either.
Interestingly, Drop Site founder Ryan Grimnoticedthat the edit history of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharifs tweet imploring Trump to extend hisdeadline for destroying Irans civilizationif a deal isnt reached saw him originally post *Draft - Pakistans PM Message on X*. Grim wrote that Sharifs own staff dont call him Pakistans PM, they would just call him prime minister. The U.S. and Israel, of course, would call him Pakistans PM. Trumpcited his talkswith Sharif when extending his deadline.
In light of the NYTs report, Trumps positive affirmation thereof, and Maos related innuendo, an alternative hypothesis is that it wasnt the US or Israel that drafted Sharifs tweet, but China. Regardless of whoever did, its reasonable that China might have indeed pressed Iran to compromise with the US, not least because it would have tremendously suffered had Trump carried through on his threat. As a reminder, he threatened to destroy Irans power plants, bridges, and possibly even oil infrastructure too.
In response, Iran threatened to destroy the Gulfs, and the sequence that Trump could have catalyzed would have resulted in the regions energy exports going offline indefinitely. China would have then suddenly lost the 48.4% of oil that it imported by sea last year,13.4%of which came from Iran and35%from the Gulf Kingdoms (excluding Oman whose exports are from the Arabian Sea). Although it has strategic reserves and is producing more alternative energy, that would still its economy very, very hard.
Chinas superpower rise would end, while resources wars would break out all across Afro-Eurasia except in resource-rich Russia, thusdestabilizing the Eastern Hemisphere for years to comeas the US relatively insulates itself in Fortress America and divides-and-rules the other side of the world. Naturally, China would prefer to avert that dark scenario even if the lesser evil results in the end ofIrans petroyuan experimentand perhaps also its oil exports to China. Continued Gulf exports are much more important.
Its unrealistic to imagine that China promised to intervene in Irans support if the US dupes it with talks for a third time in less than a year when it wont risk World War III over Taiwan nor in furtherance of its no-limits Russian strategic partners goals in Ukraine. Observers can therefore only speculate what China credibly offered Iran in exchange for compromising with the US by agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and resuming talks, but at the least, generous reconstruction support was probably included.
To recap, Chinas interest in pressing Iran to cut a deal with the US would have stemmed from fears of the sequence that Trump threatened setting Afro-Eurasia aflame for the indefinite future, though there has yet to be any unambiguous confirmation from its side that it played such role and might never be. Nevertheless, its clear that something happened close to the expiry of Trumps deadline for the IRGC to agree to a ceasefire with the US instead of embrace martyrdom, and its likely connected to China.
Andrew Korybko
